Viewing: Typical Scenario
Scenario assumptions — what changes between presets
Scenarios vary only uplift assumptions and maturity weighting. Business inputs (costs, pipeline sizes, ARR) remain as you entered them. You can edit any value after applying a preset.
| Assumption | Conservative | Typical | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Program maturity weighting | 50% | 70% | 90% |
| Expected % uplift in visible deal opportunities | 8% | 10% | 15% |
| Your typical win rate when shortlisted | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Visible pipeline win-rate uplift | 5% | 7.5% | 10% |
| Default agency cost | $45,000/year (adjustable) | ||
| Default executive/product time | 64 hours/year | ||
| Default admin time | 48 hours/year | ||
The default percentages listed above are based on analysis of a broad range of analyst engagement programs and the experiences of those companies. Detail on the basis for the overall ROI model can be found in the detailed documentation included in The Skills Connection Analyst Engagement Center.
Interpretation guidance
- Use the output as a directional estimate, not an audited forecast. The range across scenarios is more informative than any single number.
- Analyst influence is cumulative.
- The strongest use of this tool is comparing the scale of return across three scenarios — not producing a single precise number.
Program Setup
Annual program cost
?The total annual cost of running your analyst engagement program. Use the scratchpad below to build this up from its components, or enter a known figure directly.
$
All-in annual cost — use the scratchpad below to build this up
📝 Cost scratchpad — build up your program cost
External agency cost (annual)
?Cost for a third-party specialist to assist in building and running your analyst engagement program — managing relationships, preparing materials and coaching executives.
$
per year
Executive / product time
?Time required from your executives and product experts to define and deliver your story to analysts — briefing presentations, strategy sessions, and working with the agency.
hrs/yr
×
$
/hr
= $12,800
Admin time
?Time to track activities, organize internal meetings and schedule time with relevant analysts identified by the agency — co-ordination and logistics support.
hrs/yr
×
$
/hr
= $2,640
Estimated total program cost:
$45,000 + $12,800 + $2,640
$60,440
Gross margin
?Use software gross margin or contribution margin. This converts ARR into a value basis suitable for ROI comparison with program cost.
%
Typically 70–85% for SaaS
Program maturity weighting
?Adjustment to take a more conservative view of likely impact. Year one firms typically see 50-70% level of more experienced firms.
%
Typically 50–70% of potential in year 1
A · New Prospects — before they contact you
?Buyers research vendors with analysts before deciding who to actually contact. This section estimates the increase in deal volume you would see because analysts had alerted prospects to you. Buyers research vendors with analysts before deciding who to contact. This section estimates the increase in deal volume you would see because analysts had alerted prospects to you.
Annual in-market target accounts
?How many target accounts are likely to enter an active buying or re-evaluation cycle this year across your addressable market.
accounts
Expected % uplift in visible deal opportunities
?Only the incremental percentage of in-market accounts that would now include you on the initial shortlist because of analyst visibility — not your existing shortlist rate.
% uplift
Typically 10–15% achieved
Your typical win rate when you are shortlisted
?Your historical probability of winning once you are on a buyer's initial shortlist. Use your actual win rate from shortlist-stage deals.
%
Average first-year ARR per new logo
?Use first-year contract value, not full lifetime value. This keeps the model conservative and avoids over-counting renewal years.
$
First-year ARR, not TCV
B · Existing Visible Pipeline
?Buyers validate shortlists with analysts and validate potential purchase decisions. This section estimates the increase in success rate you should expect, and its impact on your existing visible pipeline. Buyers validate shortlists with analysts. This section estimates the increase in win rate you should expect on your existing visible pipeline.
Your current active pipeline value
?The total ARR value of your currently visible active pipeline — deals you are already aware of and working. Do not include deals that are only in the pipeline because of section A shortlist improvement, to avoid double-counting.
$
Existing pipeline only — exclude section A overlap
Win-rate uplift on active pipeline
?The incremental win-rate increase you would expect attributable to analyst evidence and validation. This is the uplift only — not your total win rate.
% uplift
Typically 5–10%
Incremental ARR
—
Risk-adjusted
Net Value
—
After program cost
ROI
—
Net value ÷ cost
Payback
—
Months to break even
Value contribution breakdown
| Component | Gross ARR | Risk-adj. ARR | GP Value |
|---|
Contribution chart
How to read these results
- ROI is calculated on gross profit value, not raw ARR, so it is comparable to program cost on a like-for-like basis.
- The maturity weighting (%) discounts all ARR-based benefits to reflect that a new program won't deliver full impact immediately.
- Compare the range across the three scenarios — the spread is more informative than any single number.
Export results
Download a spreadsheet showing your inputs and results across all three scenarios — useful for presenting a business case.
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